RT @JoeriRogelj: The same models can have stringent early action, and continue to net negative CO2 or GHG thereafter - without delay. We s…
The same models can have stringent early action, and continue to net negative CO2 or GHG thereafter - without delay. We showed this in a research paper in @Nature in 2019. 3/n https://t.co/wW52T3ETdW
RT @GunnarLuderer: @nworbmot @kvanderwijst @DetlefvanVuuren @JStrefler @NB_pik @RobertPietzcker Other relevant reads: @JoeriRogelj et al. @…
@nworbmot @kvanderwijst @DetlefvanVuuren @JStrefler @NB_pik @RobertPietzcker Other relevant reads: @JoeriRogelj et al. @Nature, https://t.co/dR8JUI9cEx, transformations until net-zero; @AnselmSchultes et al. #ERL, on impacts of damages on near-term reducti
RT @AlexSteffen: Important thread on the mounting evidence for the claim that when it comes to climate action, speed is everything. These…
RT @JoeriRogelj: Our initial @Nature study highlighted that focussing on a target in 2100 and not caring about what happens until then resu…
RT @AlexSteffen: Important thread on the mounting evidence for the claim that when it comes to climate action, speed is everything. These…
RT @JoeriRogelj: Our initial @Nature study highlighted that focussing on a target in 2100 and not caring about what happens until then resu…
RT @JoeriRogelj: Our initial @Nature study highlighted that focussing on a target in 2100 and not caring about what happens until then resu…
RT @AlexSteffen: Important thread on the mounting evidence for the claim that when it comes to climate action, speed is everything. These…
RT @AlexSteffen: Important thread on the mounting evidence for the claim that when it comes to climate action, speed is everything. These…
RT @AlexSteffen: Important thread on the mounting evidence for the claim that when it comes to climate action, speed is everything. These…
Important thread on the mounting evidence for the claim that when it comes to climate action, speed is everything. These studies show that "near term action in the next decade is not only necessary, but also makes sense economically and from a wider risk
RT @JoeriRogelj: Our initial @Nature study highlighted that focussing on a target in 2100 and not caring about what happens until then resu…
Great paper. It focusses on 3 key questions: 1) When will temperatures stop rising? 2) How hot will it be when they do? ("peak warming") 3) How quickly will the planet cool afterwards? (1/2)
RT @JoeriRogelj: Our initial @Nature study highlighted that focussing on a target in 2100 and not caring about what happens until then resu…
RT @JoeriRogelj: Our initial @Nature study highlighted that focussing on a target in 2100 and not caring about what happens until then resu…
RT @JoeriRogelj: Our initial @Nature study highlighted that focussing on a target in 2100 and not caring about what happens until then resu…
RT @JoeriRogelj: Our initial @Nature study highlighted that focussing on a target in 2100 and not caring about what happens until then resu…
RT @JoeriRogelj: Our initial @Nature study highlighted that focussing on a target in 2100 and not caring about what happens until then resu…
Our initial @Nature study highlighted that focussing on a target in 2100 and not caring about what happens until then results in scenarios that suggest the best way to meet a target is to plan to first miss it. Weird, irresponsible, and arguably wrong. /2
RT @vogt_schilb: This paper makes good point: goal of the PA to keep temperatures below 2C through the century not only 2100 https://t.co/n…
Indeed, a good and rather crucial point!
RT @vogt_schilb: This paper makes good point: goal of the PA to keep temperatures below 2C through the century not only 2100 https://t.co/n…
This paper makes good point: goal of the PA to keep temperatures below 2C through the century not only 2100 https://t.co/nsnvFichFT Curious whether ppl have written on what that means for choosing (shorter?) GWP time horizons ? @JoeriRogelj @daniel_huppman
@benmsanderson @coxypm I think my broader point is that if you use a different model framework (e.g. https://t.co/nxFvxEf0FQ) or IAMs with different assumptions (e.g. https://t.co/QdgLT7yD9F) then it's still net zero but the risk issue you highlight looks
There's also a common misunderstanding on scale of net-negative emissions required for 1.5°C pathways. Issues with IAM assumptions widely discussed, but importance of scenario logic often not understood. https://t.co/jMWKuHZwaV 5/
Scale of CDR needs in many SR1.5 pathways also relate to assumptions after peak warming, i.e. median warming from ~1.5°C to ~1.2-1.3°C by the end of the century (see https://t.co/8UkVzPurvD.11) . The scenario logic needs to be looked at, I think: https://t
RT @AlexSteffen: Original paper here: https://t.co/lDkJRmE5l0
Original paper here: https://t.co/lDkJRmE5l0
@mattsquair @hausfath @climateactiontr Yes. We described this kind of logic for climate scenarios in this @nature paper: https://t.co/wW52T3Eloo Or check the @CarbonBrief guest post I wrote on the topic: https://t.co/O1uYsubjke https://t.co/umH3nHeaTk
RT @daniel_huppmann: Just out in @nature with @JoeriRogelj et al.: We propose a new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term tempe…
.@JoeriRogelj et al. laid this out nicely, showing: - Peak warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions until net-zero, and occurs around same time as net-zero. - After this, the scale of CDR determines the rate of post-peak temperature decline 4/ h
10. There is a lot to unpack. Our approach is an alternative to @JoeriRogelj et al (https://t.co/VDu9yODn4N), which addresses the same issue by dividing the mitigation challenge into pieces. We would argue methods are complementary & IAMs should use
We published this logic last year in @nature : "A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal" https://t.co/wW52T3Eloo (5/n)
@NichollsZeb Yes, that is what causes it. If you have a 2100 target (only), & CDR is an option, then this is what happens... The alternative is to have a target for all times. Joeri has an alternative approach, hey, your an author! https://t.co/VDu9yOD
RT @daniel_huppmann: @PatrikErdes I share your pain that the implications from the quantitative assessment in #SR15 is not adequately appre…
RT @daniel_huppmann: Just out in @nature with @JoeriRogelj et al.: We propose a new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term tempe…
RT @daniel_huppmann: Just out in @nature with @JoeriRogelj et al.: We propose a new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term tempe…
@PatrikErdes I share your pain that the implications from the quantitative assessment in #SR15 is not adequately appreciated in the public discourse. But the community is aware of the tradeoffs of #climatedelay & CO2 removal, and recent studies try to
RT @daniel_huppmann: @raivarun81 The longer we #climatedelay and fail to #deploy & #innovate, the more it "may encourage risky #pathways th…
RT @daniel_huppmann: @raivarun81 The longer we #climatedelay and fail to #deploy & #innovate, the more it "may encourage risky #pathways th…
@raivarun81 The longer we #climatedelay and fail to #deploy & #innovate, the more it "may encourage risky #pathways that [..] reach higher-than-acceptable mid-century #warming and rely on net removal of #CO2 to undo their initial shortfall in reduction
@Peters_Glen @JoeriRogelj Thanks, Glen, for the reference to our related work - for reference, the #openaccess link to our manuscript is https://t.co/sYhLoxypEv. And we can continue to discuss the additional questions in the other thread...
RT @Peters_Glen: 4. There is a paper which tries to address some of these issue, buy trading off these aspects, but (IMHO) the results rais…
4. There is a paper which tries to address some of these issue, buy trading off these aspects, but (IMHO) the results raise many additional questions (nothing wrong with the framework, it is the results that I am unclear about)... /end https://t.co/VDu9
RT @daniel_huppmann: @Peters_Glen Well, many IAM studies in the past used an end-of-century, cumulative-budget approach as proxy for #warmi…
@Peters_Glen Well, many IAM studies in the past used an end-of-century, cumulative-budget approach as proxy for #warming - but we are improving! See the manuscript by @JoeriRogelj & myself in @nature last year... https://t.co/lAn2VwHcR3
RT @JoeriRogelj: @postcarbonsteve Already to reach net zero CO2 levels we have to be serious about drawdown (or carbon dioxide removal - CD…
@postcarbonsteve Already to reach net zero CO2 levels we have to be serious about drawdown (or carbon dioxide removal - CDR) In the long term, reversing warming indeed requires a long-term strategy for sustainable CDR We discuss this framing in this pape
@CrwdsrcingSusty @IPCC_CH @github Finally, coming back to your original question: we recently proposed a new #scenario logic explicitly highlighting the #tradeoffs between the 1) the year of #netzero, 2) #peakwarming and 3) the amount of #negativeemissions
@ChristianOnRE @DrSimEvans @hausfath @mammuthus @mtaylor_nz @MLiebreich @Sustainable2050 @nworbmot @AukeHoekstra @NB_pik @chrisnelder @GunnarLuderer @IEA @IIASAVienna @efesce @EAVgooner @CoalTransitions About #BECCS, it mostly depends on how soon we (think
@feline_cannon @daveregrets They do, and the current excessive enthusiasm for dissing RCP 8.5 is related to that. https://t.co/fr8bcJDEha will be of interest.
@Peters_Glen You can easily define the scenario assumptions such that #BECCS (or new #nuclear & other societally controversial technologies) are not part of the mix, if you want to explore alternative #pathways. See the example below https://t.co/lAn2
@Peters_Glen You are right @Peters_Glen that most currently available #integratedassessment scenarios have an implicit bias towards large-scale #BECCS towards the end of the century. That’s why we developed this new scenario logic, in @nature with @JoeriRo
RT @JoeriRogelj: Want to know more about how our new scenario logic avoids putting an undue burden on younger generations? I also wrote a…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
@justmultimedia Doesn't look like much thought has been paid to "pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Only 2 of the models here show *any* substantial decrease in CO2 at all by 2040 = high risk delayed action pathways, see Rogelj
@ErikMartiniusse @Torkil @AHaabeth @Teknisk Tenkte bla på denne https://t.co/UiYlC15WdA
RT @JoeriRogelj: Want to know more about how our new scenario logic avoids putting an undue burden on younger generations? I also wrote a…
RT @JoeriRogelj: Want to know more about how our new scenario logic avoids putting an undue burden on younger generations? I also wrote a…
@pepcanadell @nature @meinshausen @IIASAVienna And here's a free link to the online PDF: https://t.co/dGeIErS9gd
Another approach to how we should deal with the #ClimateBreakdown. The key question: why do we focus on 2100, even if it encourages more risky scenarios which delay action? Go to @nature for a link to the paper (PDF openly available) #CoveringClimateNow
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @Magda_Skipper: A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal @nature #CCN2019 #ClimateEmergency #ClimateChang…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
Para comprender cómo el calentamiento global puede ser inferior a 2 grados centígrados e incluso a 1,5 grados centígrados, la política climática debe utilizar escenarios que describen cómo la sociedad podría reducir sus emisiones de gases de efecto inverna
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…
RT @nature: A Nature study presents a climate change scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a maximum level with eith…