@SonyKapoor Far from it - were emissions to peak 2022, the heroic mitigation curve plotted starting 2023 declines at subsequent ann. rates of 0%, 0.33%, 1.06%, 1.68%, etc., peaking out at ~7.5% by mid-century. Yes,👆for a 2.0°C carbon budget - but also no
@Mr_HappyfaceEsq @WendyAnn @Ben_Domensino @AenesidemusOZ @BOM_au All wrong. 😂 The source is right on the chart. https://t.co/PVeqa3cccR
@HMcJeon3y4 @Peters_Glen Those are almost certainly based on the function for "Raupach curves." Article: https://t.co/Ul4JEMIyy1 S.I.: https://t.co/X1Hxn2dEzJ https://t.co/GG9SFDvBpO
@JamesGDyke @Peters_Glen (just adding a technical point for anyone still reading: *in fact*, these plots - the ones with the unicorns on them! - include two pathways² that would be required *if we never hit/crossed net-zero* (² "exponential" and "Raupach")
@Oliver_Geden @Peters_Glen @AkshatRathi @CICERO_klima I believe the inertia was the late Mike Raupach's idea, used in this paper: https://t.co/9meM6cR8n9
@anlomedad You need to read more of my tweets. In the particular case of the tweeted figure, it was to avoid making it too complex. Not many people can handle overly complicated figures, & it was already complicated. See, eg, ... https://t.co/0QyXp5vD
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
@rustneversleepz The Raupach curves deliberately include some inertia in the short term. I find that more realistic than dropping straight into an exponential. This tweet compares some alternatives. https://t.co/0QyXp5vDPK
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
RT @Peters_Glen: The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free…
The remaining carbon budget can be met in many different ways, all require extreme mitigation (also for non-CO₂). No free lunch… The "Raupach curve" is described more here https://t.co/PefIDbmX9d https://t.co/y6Q5qOo7ip https://t.co/ufGcEdi0Rt
@theresphysics Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions https://t.co/GWWaPnhvL9
@KetanJ0 f(t) = f₀ {1 + (r + m) t} exp (–mt) where f(t) = emissions at time t r = initial linear emissions growth rate/yr m = mitigation rate/yr f₀ = emissions at time mitigation begins (t =0) https://t.co/Ul4JEMIyy1
@KetanJ0 By the way, if you really dig into the functional form of the most familiar mitigation curves, (e.g. below), it's: f(t) = f₀ {1 + (r + m) t} exp (–mt) which has the subtle effect of deriving smaller relative (%) emissions declines early. https
@jgkoomey @simondonner @Erasmus111 I am referring to work and data from the Global Carbon Project. The functional form of the curve is drawn from Raupach, et al., 2014. It is a typical approach. I am *very* confident they qualify as "those who study emiss
@Daniel_AvOr @rahmstorf I'm not that aware of more complex carbon budget papers that account for historical emissions, wealth, etc but (in addition to the ones from 👆), maybe these could be interesting as well - https://t.co/mC5dOZhPXk (@Peters_Glen) - htt
@janssens_bart @GunnarPlovie Mitigation curves after https://t.co/EAlLKdDck6 (of https://t.co/WSZoTklkGx)
RT @Thongch34759935: #ClimateJustice "Limits on future global warming are based on cumulative emissions. We distribute this global carbo…
@alxrdk @KevinClimate I haven't looked at those particular papers, but other literature. In stuff we have done, if you take cumulative emissions back to 1870 (forget the population), then US for example, would already have a negative budget. https://t.co/P
@Zapaman @_HWright @ExtinctionR @Strike4Youth @gcarbonproject @Y_Vs_A @GreenRupertRead I don't like the term: https://t.co/845iZOoQHk We can't afford any more greenhouse gas emissions. One might say we're in debt and need to stop spending/emitting, as we c
@rustneversleepz @ProfMarkMaslin @coxypm This is not an exponential decay function. The curves allow for some inertia in the initial phases. If you look closely you'll see clearly the first year of mitigation is fairly minor. The calculated mitigation rate
@RadReduction @Peters_Glen f(t)=f0(1+(r+m)t)exp(-mt), where f0 is the emissions in 2018, r is the initial linear growth rate determined from recent historical emissions, and m is the mitigation rate determined via optimisation to use up the quota by year 2
@Peters_Glen @nigelhawtin @pepcanadell @hausfath Our use of stylised pathways began with our collaboration with the late Mike Raupach. https://t.co/9meM6cR8n9
RT @ClimateBen: In a sane world, governments would unite to slash all greenhouse gas emissions immediately. We're heading for 1.5C by 2030…
RT @ClimateBen: In a sane world, governments would unite to slash all greenhouse gas emissions immediately. We're heading for 1.5C by 2030…
In a sane world, governments would unite to slash all greenhouse gas emissions immediately. We're heading for 1.5C by 2030 and 2C a few decades later. There is no carbon budget, just an unprecedented global emergency which hasn't yet been declared. #clim
@Rubrum_Cato @DoctorVive @hausfath @jgkoomey The term "budget" is actually terrible. In 2014 we used the term quota https://t.co/PefIDbmX9d & https://t.co/z5z4EByi1C (though we used "budget" a few times). In most peoples minds, a budget is constantly r
@angarabaylari @BrigitteKnopf this was our starting point... https://t.co/EcGRrP4Ee7
@ecothought Described a bit more here https://t.co/EcGRrP4Ee7 (though not extensively)
@gabrielmarty I think this is it: https://t.co/a2jH4KrK5e Also: https://t.co/QwuDXhB6qH
RT @gcarbonproject: UPDATED combined #CO2 emissions targets figure @Peters_Glen @TyndallCentre @helixclimate http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW http:/…
#Mitigation curve for 66% chance to stay below 2C degree #globalwarming http://t.co/uOOONSP8R7 http://t.co/AhAd1JbSz4 http://t.co/sReFmi5h54
US climate targets compared to a range of sharing options: top inertia, bottom equity #COP20 http://t.co/hYFcqcqe1r http://t.co/w0h7p0ElCa
US climate targets compared to a range of sharing options: top inertia, bottom equity #COP20 http://t.co/hYFcqcqe1r http://t.co/w0h7p0ElCa
US climate targets compared to a range of sharing options: top inertia, bottom equity #COP20 http://t.co/hYFcqcqe1r http://t.co/w0h7p0ElCa
US climate targets compared to a range of sharing options: top inertia, bottom equity #COP20 http://t.co/hYFcqcqe1r http://t.co/w0h7p0ElCa
US climate targets compared to a range of sharing options: top inertia, bottom equity #COP20 http://t.co/hYFcqcqe1r http://t.co/w0h7p0ElCa
US climate targets compared to a range of sharing options: top inertia, bottom equity #COP20 http://t.co/hYFcqcqe1r http://t.co/w0h7p0ElCa
US climate targets compared to a range of sharing options: top inertia, bottom equity #COP20 http://t.co/hYFcqcqe1r http://t.co/w0h7p0ElCa
US climate targets compared to a range of sharing options: top inertia, bottom equity #COP20 http://t.co/hYFcqcqe1r http://t.co/w0h7p0ElCa
US climate targets compared to a range of sharing options: top inertia, bottom equity #COP20 http://t.co/hYFcqcqe1r http://t.co/w0h7p0ElCa
US climate targets compared to a range of sharing options: top inertia, bottom equity #COP20 http://t.co/hYFcqcqe1r http://t.co/w0h7p0ElCa
US climate targets compared to a range of sharing options: top inertia, bottom equity #COP20 http://t.co/hYFcqcqe1r http://t.co/w0h7p0ElCa
US climate targets compared to a range of sharing options: top inertia, bottom equity #COP20 http://t.co/hYFcqcqe1r http://t.co/w0h7p0ElCa
Sharing what’s left of the carbon emissions pie just got easier http://t.co/hakKhvmdy9 from http://t.co/IECTZgtqmD http://t.co/MNunJpBvOI
UPDATED combined #CO2 emissions targets figure @Peters_Glen @TyndallCentre @helixclimate http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW http://t.co/ClM1Uz3xu2
If goal were a <3 hour marathon, China has announced they'll stop running *away* from the finish after an hour. http://t.co/t1JGsBFO16
@MaryNicholsCA @danfran6 Great start. As long as we remember that we need 7-10% reduction/year http://t.co/NiQgYUHvdK http://t.co/NhZWkDprht
EU target similar to 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) with either current emissions or population http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/owuH3MiZ5g
US target similar to 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) based on current emissions (not population) http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/34qQeF0dKJ
China target inconsistent with 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) by current emissions & population http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/YRx3Ty329o
UPDATED combined #CO2 emissions targets figure @Peters_Glen @TyndallCentre @helixclimate http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW http://t.co/ClM1Uz3xu2
If goal were a <3 hour marathon, China has announced they'll stop running *away* from the finish after an hour. http://t.co/t1JGsBFO16
UPDATED combined #CO2 emissions targets figure @Peters_Glen @TyndallCentre @helixclimate http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW http://t.co/ClM1Uz3xu2
@clequere @Peters_Glen Recreated analysis from Raupach et al. (http://t.co/s0GrmF9DZ1), target somewhat distant http://t.co/O4K9AZzStX
EU target similar to 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) with either current emissions or population http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/owuH3MiZ5g
China target inconsistent with 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) by current emissions & population http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/YRx3Ty329o
US target similar to 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) based on current emissions (not population) http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/34qQeF0dKJ
@clequere @Peters_Glen Recreated analysis from Raupach et al. (http://t.co/s0GrmF9DZ1), target somewhat distant http://t.co/O4K9AZzStX
@clequere @Peters_Glen Recreated analysis from Raupach et al. (http://t.co/s0GrmF9DZ1), target somewhat distant http://t.co/O4K9AZzStX
US target similar to 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) based on current emissions (not population) http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/34qQeF0dKJ
China target inconsistent with 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) by current emissions & population http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/YRx3Ty329o
US target similar to 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) based on current emissions (not population) http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/34qQeF0dKJ
China target inconsistent with 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) by current emissions & population http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/YRx3Ty329o
China target inconsistent with 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) by current emissions & population http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/YRx3Ty329o
China target inconsistent with 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) by current emissions & population http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/YRx3Ty329o
China target inconsistent with 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) by current emissions & population http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/YRx3Ty329o
UPDATED combined #CO2 emissions targets figure @Peters_Glen @TyndallCentre @helixclimate http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW http://t.co/ClM1Uz3xu2
UPDATED combined #CO2 emissions targets figure @Peters_Glen @TyndallCentre @helixclimate http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW http://t.co/ClM1Uz3xu2
What the NEW Chinese target looks like http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW @Peters_Glen @CICERO @TyndallCentre @clequere http://t.co/3tT3wFliTS
What the NEW Chinese target looks like http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW @Peters_Glen @CICERO @TyndallCentre @clequere http://t.co/3tT3wFliTS
EU target similar to 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) with either current emissions or population http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/owuH3MiZ5g
China target inconsistent with 'sharing' a 2C target (>50%) by current emissions & population http://t.co/LBz4xQeE7q http://t.co/YRx3Ty329o
UPDATED combined #CO2 emissions targets figure @Peters_Glen @TyndallCentre @helixclimate http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW http://t.co/ClM1Uz3xu2
UPDATED combined #CO2 emissions targets figure @Peters_Glen @TyndallCentre @helixclimate http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW http://t.co/ClM1Uz3xu2
UPDATED combined #CO2 emissions targets figure @Peters_Glen @TyndallCentre @helixclimate http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW http://t.co/ClM1Uz3xu2
UPDATED combined #CO2 emissions targets figure @Peters_Glen @TyndallCentre @helixclimate http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW http://t.co/ClM1Uz3xu2
UPDATED combined #CO2 emissions targets figure @Peters_Glen @TyndallCentre @helixclimate http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW http://t.co/ClM1Uz3xu2
UPDATED combined #CO2 emissions targets figure @Peters_Glen @TyndallCentre @helixclimate http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW http://t.co/ClM1Uz3xu2
What the NEW US target looks like http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW @Peters_Glen 9.6 t0 12% below 1990 @TyndallCentre http://t.co/jMl6usnhd6
What the NEW Chinese target looks like http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW @Peters_Glen @CICERO @TyndallCentre @clequere http://t.co/3tT3wFliTS
What the NEW US target looks like http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW @Peters_Glen 9.6 t0 12% below 1990 @TyndallCentre http://t.co/jMl6usnhd6
What the NEW US target looks like http://t.co/PpoA5F9JBW @Peters_Glen 9.6 t0 12% below 1990 @TyndallCentre http://t.co/jMl6usnhd6