| Title |
Forecasting Andean rainfall and crop yield from the influence of El Niño on Pleiades visibility
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
Nature, January 2000
|
| DOI | 10.1038/47456 |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Benjamin S. Orlove, John C. H. Chiang, Mark A. Cane |
| Abstract |
Farmers in drought-prone regions of Andean South America have historically made observations of changes in the apparent brightness of stars in the Pleiades around the time of the southern winter solstice in order to forecast interannual variations in summer rainfall and in autumn harvests. They moderate the effect of reduced rainfall by adjusting the planting dates of potatoes, their most important crop. Here we use data on cloud cover and water vapour from satellite imagery, agronomic data from the Andean altiplano and an index of El Nino variability to analyse this forecasting method. We find that poor visibility of the Pleiades in June-caused by an increase in subvisual high cirrus clouds-is indicative of an El Nino year, which is usually linked to reduced rainfall during the growing season several months later. Our results suggest that this centuries-old method of seasonal rainfall forecasting may be based on a simple indicator of El Nino variability. |
X Demographics
The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 4 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 1 | 25% |
| Unknown | 3 | 75% |
Demographic breakdown
| Type | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Scientists | 2 | 50% |
| Members of the public | 2 | 50% |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 181 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 3 | 2% |
| Austria | 2 | 1% |
| Colombia | 1 | <1% |
| Germany | 1 | <1% |
| Ghana | 1 | <1% |
| Chile | 1 | <1% |
| Uganda | 1 | <1% |
| Canada | 1 | <1% |
| Brazil | 1 | <1% |
| Other | 2 | 1% |
| Unknown | 167 | 92% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Researcher | 48 | 27% |
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 40 | 22% |
| Student > Master | 24 | 13% |
| Professor | 11 | 6% |
| Student > Bachelor | 9 | 5% |
| Other | 28 | 15% |
| Unknown | 21 | 12% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Environmental Science | 42 | 23% |
| Earth and Planetary Sciences | 31 | 17% |
| Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 28 | 15% |
| Social Sciences | 22 | 12% |
| Engineering | 7 | 4% |
| Other | 20 | 11% |
| Unknown | 31 | 17% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 72. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 19 July 2023.
All research outputs
#573,461
of 24,837,507 outputs
Outputs from Nature
#24,220
of 96,001 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#500
of 111,612 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Nature
#15
of 314 outputs
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